Runnning Back Preview

This year, I believe that there are 7 RBs who I would be happy with in taking in the first round:

Chris Johnson (TEN)
Adrian Peterson (MIN)
Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
Ray Rice (BAL)
Michael Turner (ATL)
Frank Gore (SF)
Rashard Mendenhall (PIT)

Johnson, Peterson, MJD, and Rice should all be able to replicate their forms from last season barring injury. I'm especially intrigued by what Ray Rice can do in Baltimore now that they've added one of the better possession receivers in the league, Anquan Boldin, over the off-season. Add another year of maturation for Joe Flacco, that strong Ravens defense, and the prospect that fellow RB Willis McGahee wont be taking goal line carries away from Rice, Rice may be in line to become a part of the Big 3.

Now, some may have questions about the final 3 names on that list, but let me rest your worries with these short comments:

Michael Turner - Here you have someone who has a proven track record. Two years ago, this was someone who ran for almost 1700 yards and scored 17 touchdowns. Last season, the offensive leaders of the Falcons (Turner and QB Matt Ryan) were banged up and were never able to regain their forms during the mid and late part of the season. However in 2009, in those first 8 games Turner put out some impressive stats (10 tds, 871 yards).

High ankle sprains just need time to heal and Turner wasnt given that. Hes had an offseason to rest and I expect him this year to return to form. Questions of him taking fewer snaps dont worry me a bit since: a) hes an explosive runner; b) he is the clear starting RB on that team and has no worries of a timeshare.

Frank Gore - A model of consistency, Frank Gore has rushed for over 1100 yards in each of the last 4 seasons. People who dont believe Gore is a first round player to be happy with often point to factors like his history of injuries (missed 2 games in each of the last 2 seasons) or his lack of touchdowns (in his career, only scored more than 10 tds last year).

However, the positives greatly outweigh the negatives in my opinion. Again, you have someone in Gore who you wont have to worry about in terms of sharing time in the backfield. In addition, the 49ers upgraded their offensive line, spending two 1st-round picks to grab OT Anthony Davis and OG Mike Iupati and the offense will be run by the same offensive co-ordinator that ran it last year, something that hasnt happened since 2005. Lastly, to add icing to the cake, the 49ers face one of the weaker schedules this year considering they will be playing in the NFC West. Gore and that offense look poised to put up some really nice numbers.

Rashard Mendenhall - Last year was a breakout year for the former first-round pick where he rushed for over 1100 yards and scored 7 touchdowns in his 2nd year. There is one big reason why fantasy managers should expect big things from Mendenhall this year - Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben will be serving at least a 4 game suspension this season after being accused of sexual assault for the 2nd time in his short but storied career. As a result, that team will lean heavily upon its running game and Mendenhall will not be sharing touches with anyone else on that roster.

Some may counter that teams may look to drop down some players from the secondary and that will hurt Mendenhall`s production, but I dont see that. Given that the projected QB for the Steelers will be Byron Leftwich, someone who has always had a strong arm, and given the big play receivers that the team features in Hines Ward and Mike Wallace, I dont expect that to be the case.

Now with that out of the way, I think one very important point to consider is that there are a limited number of running backs who have clear starting jobs in the league. With so many teams going to two-back systems, I believe its essential to go out and try to grab at least 2 backs who have outright starting jobs, which probably means on draft day you will have to go RB-RB in the first two rounds. Some may argue for Randy Moss or Andre Johnson in the first or second, but personally I rather have my teams anchored by two starting RBs who have clear jobs rather than play the guessing game week after week with running backs who will share the workload.

Just so we are clear, the RBs who have clear jobs in the league going into 2010 are the following:

Chris Johnson (TEN)
Adrian Peterson (MIN)
Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
Ray Rice (BAL)
Michael Turner (ATL)
Frank Gore (SF)
Rashard Mendenhall (PIT)
Steven Jackson (STL)
Ryan Grant (GB)
Cedric Benson (CIN)

Everywhere else, there seemingly are teams that appear to have adopted a two rb approach which will ultimately frustrate you week after week, at least to start the fantasy season. For me, if I can couple one of the top 7 mentioned with another RB like Jackson, Grant, Benson, Jamaal Charles (KC), or Shonn Greene (NYJ), I would like my roster going forward.






SLEEPERS AND BUSTS

SLEEPERS

Jahvid Best (DET)- Best was a late first round draft pick for the Lions in this year`s draft and early indications from the organization is that he has the inside track to become the every down starter to begin the season. Best is a fast runner and has good hands coming out of the backfield, so he is a weapon that the Lions can put into multiple situations on the field. The Lions are an emerging team and have added a lot of talent this off-season on both sides of the ball to add to a young core of players. This may be the year that the team starts to take off and become competitive in a difficult NFC North division.

Matt Forte (CHI) - Two years ago, Matt Forte put up big boy numbers for the Chicago Bears, running for over 1200 yards and scoring 12 touchdowns. As a result, in last year`s draft, he was a first round commodity. Unfortunately for those banking on a big season from Forte, he fizzled and probably cost a lot of league managers a change at the title. This year, I expect a huge comeback year for the Bears running back and given the fact that hes likely to slide in a lot of drafts, Forte presents excellent value for managers.

Why the optimism? One name - Mike Martz. The Bears brought in Mike Martz to become the offensive coordinator this year. Everywhere that he has gone, teams have seen an improvement in offensive output, at least on the statistical side. And note the years that running backs have had once under a Martz offense (Marshall Faulk in St. Louis, Frank Gore with San Fran). Forte is in the same mold as a Faulk or a Gore in terms of ability as a running back. He is a good runner out of the backfield, but more importantly has good hands (over 50 receptions in each of the past two years). People may be wary that the signing of Chester Taylor may take away value from Forte, but I dont. I expect Forte to play a lot of downs and rebound to his 2008 form.

Ben Tate (HOU)- There's a reason why the Houston Texans drafted Ben Tate with a 2nd rounder in this year's draft. The offense has a lot of promise, anchored by QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson. The team is a top 10 offense in the league. However, in rushing, they were in the bottom 5 in terms of yards gained. Steve Slaton was expected to be that key clog in the backfield after an impressive rookie year, but he fizzled last season as a result of injuries and one wonders how his slight frame will now hold up as a potential starting RB. The drafting of Tate with an early round pick speaks volumes about what the organization may think about Slaton. There have been rumblings in camp that Tate may become the starting RB on day one of the season, which would be excellent value for a mid to late-round draft pick in one's league. If anything, you can expect Tate to be a goal-line back, taking snaps in a time share with Slaton.


BUSTS

Ryan Matthews (SD)- According Yahoo's projected rankings, Ryan Matthews is the 9th best overall player in fantasy this year. He is projected as a better back than guys like DeAngelo Williams, Shonn Greene, and Ryan Grant. For me, I'd rather have each of those three guys than Matthews right now. I understand the promise that Matthews has behind him, playing in one of the more productive offenses and appearing to have the starting RB job. However, I cant put that much trust, spending a 2nd round pick on Matthews.

I do not want to have any questions of production with my first 2 or 3 draft picks - thats where you can lose a draft. I'd rather grab more sure things like Williams, Greene, or Grant than take a roll of the dice with Matthews who is still a rookie playing on an offense that is pass dominant and may be missing key members on opening day (WR VIncent Jackson as a result of suspension; LT Marcus McNeil as a result of a contract dispute). Thats the problem - you're going to have to spend that 2nd rounder to get Matthews, and I'm not willing to do that.

Ronnie Brown (MIA) - Every year, theres one league manager who expects Ronnie Brown to have a huge season. And every year, that manager will be disappointed at what Ronnie Brown produces. Dont be that manager!!!

Look, here are the facts on Ronnie Brown:
- He starts for a team that predominantly runs the ball (Thats good!)
- He starts for a team with one of the best offensive lines in the league (Thats good!)
- He has only played a 16 game season once in his 5 year career (Thats bad...)
- He has only rushed for more than 1000 yards once in his career (Thats bad...)
- He is part of a significant time share in the backfield with Ricky Williams (Thats bad...)
- He has only scored more than 10 touchdowns in one season (Thats bad...)

Too many bads, not enough goods. For the type of pick you're going to spend to get Ronnie Brown, its not worth the heartache an week by week anxiety of wondering whether or not Brown will a) produce for you or b) get injured. You're better off gambling with a late round pick with Ricky Williams and hope that Brown gets injured. Just saying.

QUICK SHOTS


Comments on players not mentioned

Pierre Thomas (NO) - Like him as a low 2nd RB/high end 3rd RB on any fantasy squad. Yardage numbers will never be there, but given the fact that he's the obvious starting RB on the most explosive offense in the league, he's someone that you dont hate having on your team.

Beanie Wells (ARZ) - Here's someone that Im a little perplexed about in terms of whether I like him or not. The running game in Arizona will be more emphasized now that Kurt Warner has retired and although that should spell well for the fantasy prospects of Beanie, there are some flags to lay down. One, he may be platooned with another established name in that Arizona backfield, Tim Hightower, who has averaged 9 TDs over the past two years. Two, he has a history of nagging injuries since his days in college, which can easily creep back and frustrate owners over the course of the season. I wont say avoid him on draft day - take a mid to late-round flier on him but make sure you have 2 quality backs that you feel confident that you can depend on for the season.

Cedric Benson (CIN) - Like him. He's found a home in Cincy and the Bengals want him to run. QB Carson Palmer and WR Chad Johnson will get the headlines and are the leaders of the team, but the Bengals are a run first squad and Benson will get plenty of work. No significant timeshare in Cincinnati either so that should be a welcomed sign for fantasy owners. Draft him as a solid number 2 running back for your fantasy team.

LeSean McCoy (PHI) - Intriguing pick. Obviously, McCoy will be the starting RB in that Eagles offense with Brian Westbrook gone from the team. The problem is deciding how big of a factor McCoy will be. One would expect McCoy's ceiling to be what Westbrook's ceiling was as an Eagle (1300 yards rushing, 700 yards receiving, 10+ touchdowns). Question is whether McCoy can reach those numbers in only his 2nd year in the league and with a new QB under center in Kevin Kolb. I would probably take a conservative estimate on McCoy's numbers, being satisfied with 900 rushing yards, 500 receiving yards, and a 7-9 touchdowns total. Those numbers would make him a nice 2nd RB in fantasy football.

Knowshon Moreno (DEN) - I personally dont think he'll do too much this year. A first-round pick last season, one would expect the Broncos to lean more heavily on the running game considering Moreno's talent. However, I just dont see that as the case. Head Coach Josh McDaniels is a New England Patriots disciple and those Patriot squads under Belichick have rarely featured a stout fantasy RB (the exception being Corey Dillon). Plus with a coach like McDaniels, who likes to experiment with ideas on offense, one never really knows what will happen. Moreno has talent, but I wouldnt depend on him as a 2nd RB on my fantasy roster. Hes more suited as a 3rd RB with upside to produce as a 2nd RB.

Jonathan Stewart (CAR) - Red flag for me. Although he has produced some nice numbers over the past two seasons, averaging 10 rushing TDs, the big worry for me is injuries. He has a history of dealing with foot injuries for the past two years and although reports are that he's coming into camp this year healthy, I'm not willing to take the chance. You can find a better starting #2 RB with fewer questions surrounding him like Cedric Benson or Matt Forte.