AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans (Matt Schaub) - Matt Schaub will be entering his 3rd year as starting QB for the Houston Texans and if last year was any indication of this year, we have an elite fantasy star in the making. Schaub more than impressed last season (4770 yards/29TDs), finishing 3rd overall among fantasy QBs. The trouble with Schaub will be staying healthy as he only played 11 games the previous two seasons before last. However, we see what type of numbers that he can put up when he plays a full 16 games. Expect similar or even better numbers from Schaub this year. Schaub is a top 10 QB that you should be happy with for the whole season.
Indianapolis Colts (Peyton Manning) - The model of consistency, for the past four years he has averaged over 4000 yards passing and 30 touchdowns. He may getting older, but there are no signs of Manning slowing down given the success he had last year (4500 yards/33TDs). The pieces are in place for the Colts to make another run at the Super Bowl and the only way they do that is with Manning slinging the ball from the pocket. Expect similar stats from Manning this year.
Jacksonville Jaguars (David Garrard) - You know what you get when you draft Garrard on your fantasy team. He isnt going to marvel you with superstar numbers (his career high in touchdowns thrown is 18). The Jaguars rely too heavily on the ground game and Maurice Jones-Drew in the redzone for Garrard to score too many TDs. There is a bit of optimism if WR Mike Sims-Walker continues to emerge as a go to receiver (869yards/7TDs) heading into his 3rd year. In the end, Garrard shouldnt be anything more than a backup QB.
Tennessee Titans (Vince Young) - Vince Young returned to the starting QB position in week 8 and helped lead the Titans to 8-2 in their final 10 games of the season, firmly entrenching his spot as the starting QB for the team. Now last season, Young scored 12 TDs (10 through the air, 2 on the ground) while only giving up 7 interceptions. The Titans will rely heavily on their stud RB Chris Johnson, but Young will be needed to make plays through the air and with his feet to keep defenses honest. This year, expect a continuation of last season from Young as a fantasy player - efficient like David Garrard in his keeping care of the football, yet able to score because he is such a dynamic athlete on a dynamic offense.
AFC WEST
San Diego Chargers (Philip Rivers)- First things first, Philip Rivers is a fantasy stud. Last season, he only reaffirmed the idea that the Chargers are his team now by throwing over 4200 yards and 28TDs. Under normal circumstances, Rivers is a top 5 QB in the league. However entering this season, there are 2 big red flags that surround the Chargers that can significantly cut into Rivers' fantasy production. First, there is the holdout of LT Marcus McNeill, who looks to sign a long-term contract before the possible 2011 lockout. Secondly, go to receiver Vincent Jackson, will miss the first 3 games of the season for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy with a DUI charge last year. With that said, Rivers should still be a very good QB this year, but I would expect him to end up with lower fantasy stats this year than what he put up last season.
Denver Broncos (Kyle Orton, Brady Quinn, Tim Tebow) - In Denver, there are 2 very intriguing stories developing at QB. First: Who is the opening day starter? Kyle Orton statistically did well as the starting QB for the Broncos in 2009 (3802 yards/21 TDs/12 INTs). However, after starting the season at 6-0, the Broncos dropped 8 of their last 10 games to end it. Although it would seem that Orton will get the starting job once again in 2010, one has to figure he may be on a short leash because of his win-loss record last season and because they have a promising QB backing him up in Brady Quinn. For my money, Im pretty confident that Orton keeps the job for the year at least and posts similar numbers that he did last season. The fall from grace that the Broncos experienced last year wasnt so much a result of Orton's play but rather the play from his teammates. He had hiccups, but not enough to warrant thinking he isnt deserving of the starting job this year.
The 2nd question coming into 2010 for the Broncos at QB is, "How does Tim Tebow fit into the storyline this year?". Head Coach Josh McDaniels prides himself in being able to develop QBs (see Matt Cassell 2008) and in Tim Tebow he saw the ultimate project. As a result, he spent a first-round draft pick to get the two-time Heisman Trophy winner from Florida. Tebow is an outstanding athlete for the QB position and has a history of winning. The question is how he will be able to adapt to being an NFL QB and whether or not he can make the necessary throws from the pocket to be a winner in the NFL. Expect Tebow to be primarily a student in his first year in the league with the occasional snap from the Wildcat formation, utilizing his legs and playmaking ability.
Oakland Raiders (Jason Campbell)- Believe it or not, Jason Campbell is one of the guys that I have pegged as a sleeper this season. Yes, an Oakland Raider may have a significant fantasy year this season, no joke. The Raiders team have a lot of weapons at wide receiver who will actually have a QB who can throw them the ball. Chaz Schilens, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Louis Murphy all have great speed to really stretch out the field which fits in with Campbell's downfield arm.
The question is going to be if that offensive line can hold up and prevent sacks (they gave up 49 sacks, 3rd worse in the NFL). If they can hold up, the Raiders will surprise a lot of people. And considering that Campbell will probably go as a late round draft pick, I think he`s a nice buy-low candidate who can put up numbers that will be better than a bye-week fill-in player.
KC Chiefs (Matt Cassel)- Not much upside with Cassel this year. The Chiefs have a nice duo in the backfield, led by 2009 breakout star Jamaal Charles, and veteran workhorse Thomas Jones. It looks like the Chiefs will work the run game early and often, then setup playaction pass with Cassel to their wideouts, Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers. Both wideouts have good talent and Cassel may be a pleasant fantasy QB surprise, but I wouldnt put too much investment in grabbing Cassel. Hes a bye-week fill-in, nothing more.
- Tomorrow, NFC NORTH and NFC EAST QB Previews. Until then!
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
QB Preview (AFC EAST/AFC NORTH)
AFC East
Buffalo Bills (Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Brohm) - Not a very appetizing group to be all that honest. You'll only need to roster one of these guys if you happen to be in a very deep league and/or your league plays 2 QBs. Unless you need to fill in a QB during a bye week, the Bills QBs are ones that you'll probably want to avoid on draft day.
Miami Dolphins (Chad Henne) - Chad Henne is the clear starting QB for a team that looks poised to rebound after finishing 7-9 last season. At best, I would expect fantasy numbers from Henne that would mirror Jacksonville Jaguars QB David Garrard, maybe slightly better. The Dolphins are going to run the ball, the key for Henne is to manage the game and be efficient in the passing game. He does have a nice target to throw to now in Brandon Marshall, who will help move the sticks and be a big red zone target, but I wouldnt expect anything more than 3300 yards passing/18 TDs passing. He makes for a nice #2 QB/backup fantasy QB.
New York Jets (Mark Sanchez) - Sanchez is someone that you may want to target as a late round flier with a high ceiling for your team. The Jets are going to run the ball and they wont stray away from their run first philosophy. However, when teams continue to bring those safeties down into the box, it will leave some huge plays on the outside for Sanchez to exploit and the Jets have brought in some big play receivers in Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes. The promise of a nice season is there at a relatively low price.
New England Patriots (Tom Brady) - He may not be among the ranks of the elite QBs in fantasy like Drew Brees or Peyton Manning, but hes right there knocking on the door. Expect Brady to perform well, easily topping 25 passing TDs.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens (Joe Flacco) - Big time potential here. Poised since day one, Flacco looks to improve on his numbers last year as he threw for over 3600 yards and 21 TDs. He has all the ingredients to succeed around him - a quality defense to keep the offense on the field, a solid offensive line, a budding star at running back in Ray Rice, and now a go to wide receiver in Anquan Boldin, who was brought in this off-season. It should be easy for him to replicate the numbers he did last season, the question is whether he significantly improves upon them. I think he does, where he should be able to exceed 25 TDs this season.
Cincinnati Bengals (Carson Palmer) - Dont draft him expecting the stats that he put up earlier in his career. This is a different team. Palmer wont pass for 4000 yards again or throw for about 30 TDs again. The Bengals are a more run-oriented team nowadays, relying more on the legs of Cedric Benson than the arm and hands of Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson. However, Palmer should be able to put up nice stats mirroring what he did last year (3094 yards/21TDs/13INTs).
Cleveland Browns (Jake Delhomme, Seneca Wallace, Colt McCoy) - First things first, I'll say that drafting and starting any of these QBs would be an option ONLY if you're looking for a bye-week fill-in or you happen to play in a very deep league. With that said, there are two story lines worth watching in Cleveland regarding the QB position. First: Who emerges as the opening day QB. One would have to believe that Delhomme has the inside track at winning the starting job given his experience but Seneca Wallace is a Mike Holmgren guy, one of his holdovers during his days in Seattle.
Secondly, does QB of the future, Colt McCoy, get a run at starting QB sometime during the season. McCoy is obviously someone who will lead the Browns sometime down the line. He has the pedigree and the Browns didn't spend an early round draft pick to let him keep the bench warm. One has to imagine if the Browns arent in the playoff picture come November, McCoy will be under center.
Pittsburgh Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger, Byron Leftwich, Dennis Dixon) - The Steelers QB situation will be in question for anywhere from the first 4 to 6 games to start the season after Big Ben was accused once again of sexual assault in the offseason. As a result, the opening day starter under center will be either veteran Byron Leftwich or 2nd year player Dennis Dixon. Leftwich is the likely candidate to win the job given his starting QB experience from his days in Jacksonville. However, should he struggle, one shouldn't be surprised to see Coach Mike Tomlin make the change and bring Dixon in. Dennis Dixon is someone who may not be as polished as Leftwich, but he is more athletic and dynamic as a player.
In either event, both are just keeping the seat warm under Roethlisberger returns from suspension unless the Steelers start the season 4-0 or 6-0, then the intrigue begins as talks of Roethlisberger being traded will begin to heat up like they did shortly after the rape accusation.
Draft Ben with a mid to late round flier. He could be a difference maker during the later weeks of the fantasy season and into the fantasy football playoffs. Other than that, no need to draft/start either Leftwich or Dixon unless you need them for a bye-week or they somehow become the 2nd coming of Steve McNair.
(Tomorrow, Previews of the AFC SOUTH and AFC WEST)
- TheZar
Buffalo Bills (Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Brohm) - Not a very appetizing group to be all that honest. You'll only need to roster one of these guys if you happen to be in a very deep league and/or your league plays 2 QBs. Unless you need to fill in a QB during a bye week, the Bills QBs are ones that you'll probably want to avoid on draft day.
Miami Dolphins (Chad Henne) - Chad Henne is the clear starting QB for a team that looks poised to rebound after finishing 7-9 last season. At best, I would expect fantasy numbers from Henne that would mirror Jacksonville Jaguars QB David Garrard, maybe slightly better. The Dolphins are going to run the ball, the key for Henne is to manage the game and be efficient in the passing game. He does have a nice target to throw to now in Brandon Marshall, who will help move the sticks and be a big red zone target, but I wouldnt expect anything more than 3300 yards passing/18 TDs passing. He makes for a nice #2 QB/backup fantasy QB.
New York Jets (Mark Sanchez) - Sanchez is someone that you may want to target as a late round flier with a high ceiling for your team. The Jets are going to run the ball and they wont stray away from their run first philosophy. However, when teams continue to bring those safeties down into the box, it will leave some huge plays on the outside for Sanchez to exploit and the Jets have brought in some big play receivers in Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes. The promise of a nice season is there at a relatively low price.
New England Patriots (Tom Brady) - He may not be among the ranks of the elite QBs in fantasy like Drew Brees or Peyton Manning, but hes right there knocking on the door. Expect Brady to perform well, easily topping 25 passing TDs.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens (Joe Flacco) - Big time potential here. Poised since day one, Flacco looks to improve on his numbers last year as he threw for over 3600 yards and 21 TDs. He has all the ingredients to succeed around him - a quality defense to keep the offense on the field, a solid offensive line, a budding star at running back in Ray Rice, and now a go to wide receiver in Anquan Boldin, who was brought in this off-season. It should be easy for him to replicate the numbers he did last season, the question is whether he significantly improves upon them. I think he does, where he should be able to exceed 25 TDs this season.
Cincinnati Bengals (Carson Palmer) - Dont draft him expecting the stats that he put up earlier in his career. This is a different team. Palmer wont pass for 4000 yards again or throw for about 30 TDs again. The Bengals are a more run-oriented team nowadays, relying more on the legs of Cedric Benson than the arm and hands of Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson. However, Palmer should be able to put up nice stats mirroring what he did last year (3094 yards/21TDs/13INTs).
Cleveland Browns (Jake Delhomme, Seneca Wallace, Colt McCoy) - First things first, I'll say that drafting and starting any of these QBs would be an option ONLY if you're looking for a bye-week fill-in or you happen to play in a very deep league. With that said, there are two story lines worth watching in Cleveland regarding the QB position. First: Who emerges as the opening day QB. One would have to believe that Delhomme has the inside track at winning the starting job given his experience but Seneca Wallace is a Mike Holmgren guy, one of his holdovers during his days in Seattle.
Secondly, does QB of the future, Colt McCoy, get a run at starting QB sometime during the season. McCoy is obviously someone who will lead the Browns sometime down the line. He has the pedigree and the Browns didn't spend an early round draft pick to let him keep the bench warm. One has to imagine if the Browns arent in the playoff picture come November, McCoy will be under center.
Pittsburgh Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger, Byron Leftwich, Dennis Dixon) - The Steelers QB situation will be in question for anywhere from the first 4 to 6 games to start the season after Big Ben was accused once again of sexual assault in the offseason. As a result, the opening day starter under center will be either veteran Byron Leftwich or 2nd year player Dennis Dixon. Leftwich is the likely candidate to win the job given his starting QB experience from his days in Jacksonville. However, should he struggle, one shouldn't be surprised to see Coach Mike Tomlin make the change and bring Dixon in. Dennis Dixon is someone who may not be as polished as Leftwich, but he is more athletic and dynamic as a player.
In either event, both are just keeping the seat warm under Roethlisberger returns from suspension unless the Steelers start the season 4-0 or 6-0, then the intrigue begins as talks of Roethlisberger being traded will begin to heat up like they did shortly after the rape accusation.
Draft Ben with a mid to late round flier. He could be a difference maker during the later weeks of the fantasy season and into the fantasy football playoffs. Other than that, no need to draft/start either Leftwich or Dixon unless you need them for a bye-week or they somehow become the 2nd coming of Steve McNair.
(Tomorrow, Previews of the AFC SOUTH and AFC WEST)
- TheZar
Monday, July 26, 2010
Runnning Back Preview
This year, I believe that there are 7 RBs who I would be happy with in taking in the first round:
Chris Johnson (TEN)
Adrian Peterson (MIN)
Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
Ray Rice (BAL)
Michael Turner (ATL)
Frank Gore (SF)
Rashard Mendenhall (PIT)
Johnson, Peterson, MJD, and Rice should all be able to replicate their forms from last season barring injury. I'm especially intrigued by what Ray Rice can do in Baltimore now that they've added one of the better possession receivers in the league, Anquan Boldin, over the off-season. Add another year of maturation for Joe Flacco, that strong Ravens defense, and the prospect that fellow RB Willis McGahee wont be taking goal line carries away from Rice, Rice may be in line to become a part of the Big 3.
Now, some may have questions about the final 3 names on that list, but let me rest your worries with these short comments:
Michael Turner - Here you have someone who has a proven track record. Two years ago, this was someone who ran for almost 1700 yards and scored 17 touchdowns. Last season, the offensive leaders of the Falcons (Turner and QB Matt Ryan) were banged up and were never able to regain their forms during the mid and late part of the season. However in 2009, in those first 8 games Turner put out some impressive stats (10 tds, 871 yards).
High ankle sprains just need time to heal and Turner wasnt given that. Hes had an offseason to rest and I expect him this year to return to form. Questions of him taking fewer snaps dont worry me a bit since: a) hes an explosive runner; b) he is the clear starting RB on that team and has no worries of a timeshare.
Frank Gore - A model of consistency, Frank Gore has rushed for over 1100 yards in each of the last 4 seasons. People who dont believe Gore is a first round player to be happy with often point to factors like his history of injuries (missed 2 games in each of the last 2 seasons) or his lack of touchdowns (in his career, only scored more than 10 tds last year).
However, the positives greatly outweigh the negatives in my opinion. Again, you have someone in Gore who you wont have to worry about in terms of sharing time in the backfield. In addition, the 49ers upgraded their offensive line, spending two 1st-round picks to grab OT Anthony Davis and OG Mike Iupati and the offense will be run by the same offensive co-ordinator that ran it last year, something that hasnt happened since 2005. Lastly, to add icing to the cake, the 49ers face one of the weaker schedules this year considering they will be playing in the NFC West. Gore and that offense look poised to put up some really nice numbers.
Rashard Mendenhall - Last year was a breakout year for the former first-round pick where he rushed for over 1100 yards and scored 7 touchdowns in his 2nd year. There is one big reason why fantasy managers should expect big things from Mendenhall this year - Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben will be serving at least a 4 game suspension this season after being accused of sexual assault for the 2nd time in his short but storied career. As a result, that team will lean heavily upon its running game and Mendenhall will not be sharing touches with anyone else on that roster.
Some may counter that teams may look to drop down some players from the secondary and that will hurt Mendenhall`s production, but I dont see that. Given that the projected QB for the Steelers will be Byron Leftwich, someone who has always had a strong arm, and given the big play receivers that the team features in Hines Ward and Mike Wallace, I dont expect that to be the case.
Now with that out of the way, I think one very important point to consider is that there are a limited number of running backs who have clear starting jobs in the league. With so many teams going to two-back systems, I believe its essential to go out and try to grab at least 2 backs who have outright starting jobs, which probably means on draft day you will have to go RB-RB in the first two rounds. Some may argue for Randy Moss or Andre Johnson in the first or second, but personally I rather have my teams anchored by two starting RBs who have clear jobs rather than play the guessing game week after week with running backs who will share the workload.
Just so we are clear, the RBs who have clear jobs in the league going into 2010 are the following:
Chris Johnson (TEN)
Adrian Peterson (MIN)
Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
Ray Rice (BAL)
Michael Turner (ATL)
Frank Gore (SF)
Rashard Mendenhall (PIT)
Steven Jackson (STL)
Ryan Grant (GB)
Cedric Benson (CIN)
Everywhere else, there seemingly are teams that appear to have adopted a two rb approach which will ultimately frustrate you week after week, at least to start the fantasy season. For me, if I can couple one of the top 7 mentioned with another RB like Jackson, Grant, Benson, Jamaal Charles (KC), or Shonn Greene (NYJ), I would like my roster going forward.
SLEEPERS AND BUSTS
SLEEPERS
Jahvid Best (DET)- Best was a late first round draft pick for the Lions in this year`s draft and early indications from the organization is that he has the inside track to become the every down starter to begin the season. Best is a fast runner and has good hands coming out of the backfield, so he is a weapon that the Lions can put into multiple situations on the field. The Lions are an emerging team and have added a lot of talent this off-season on both sides of the ball to add to a young core of players. This may be the year that the team starts to take off and become competitive in a difficult NFC North division.
Matt Forte (CHI) - Two years ago, Matt Forte put up big boy numbers for the Chicago Bears, running for over 1200 yards and scoring 12 touchdowns. As a result, in last year`s draft, he was a first round commodity. Unfortunately for those banking on a big season from Forte, he fizzled and probably cost a lot of league managers a change at the title. This year, I expect a huge comeback year for the Bears running back and given the fact that hes likely to slide in a lot of drafts, Forte presents excellent value for managers.
Why the optimism? One name - Mike Martz. The Bears brought in Mike Martz to become the offensive coordinator this year. Everywhere that he has gone, teams have seen an improvement in offensive output, at least on the statistical side. And note the years that running backs have had once under a Martz offense (Marshall Faulk in St. Louis, Frank Gore with San Fran). Forte is in the same mold as a Faulk or a Gore in terms of ability as a running back. He is a good runner out of the backfield, but more importantly has good hands (over 50 receptions in each of the past two years). People may be wary that the signing of Chester Taylor may take away value from Forte, but I dont. I expect Forte to play a lot of downs and rebound to his 2008 form.
Ben Tate (HOU)- There's a reason why the Houston Texans drafted Ben Tate with a 2nd rounder in this year's draft. The offense has a lot of promise, anchored by QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson. The team is a top 10 offense in the league. However, in rushing, they were in the bottom 5 in terms of yards gained. Steve Slaton was expected to be that key clog in the backfield after an impressive rookie year, but he fizzled last season as a result of injuries and one wonders how his slight frame will now hold up as a potential starting RB. The drafting of Tate with an early round pick speaks volumes about what the organization may think about Slaton. There have been rumblings in camp that Tate may become the starting RB on day one of the season, which would be excellent value for a mid to late-round draft pick in one's league. If anything, you can expect Tate to be a goal-line back, taking snaps in a time share with Slaton.
BUSTS
Ryan Matthews (SD)- According Yahoo's projected rankings, Ryan Matthews is the 9th best overall player in fantasy this year. He is projected as a better back than guys like DeAngelo Williams, Shonn Greene, and Ryan Grant. For me, I'd rather have each of those three guys than Matthews right now. I understand the promise that Matthews has behind him, playing in one of the more productive offenses and appearing to have the starting RB job. However, I cant put that much trust, spending a 2nd round pick on Matthews.
I do not want to have any questions of production with my first 2 or 3 draft picks - thats where you can lose a draft. I'd rather grab more sure things like Williams, Greene, or Grant than take a roll of the dice with Matthews who is still a rookie playing on an offense that is pass dominant and may be missing key members on opening day (WR VIncent Jackson as a result of suspension; LT Marcus McNeil as a result of a contract dispute). Thats the problem - you're going to have to spend that 2nd rounder to get Matthews, and I'm not willing to do that.
Ronnie Brown (MIA) - Every year, theres one league manager who expects Ronnie Brown to have a huge season. And every year, that manager will be disappointed at what Ronnie Brown produces. Dont be that manager!!!
Look, here are the facts on Ronnie Brown:
- He starts for a team that predominantly runs the ball (Thats good!)
- He starts for a team with one of the best offensive lines in the league (Thats good!)
- He has only played a 16 game season once in his 5 year career (Thats bad...)
- He has only rushed for more than 1000 yards once in his career (Thats bad...)
- He is part of a significant time share in the backfield with Ricky Williams (Thats bad...)
- He has only scored more than 10 touchdowns in one season (Thats bad...)
Too many bads, not enough goods. For the type of pick you're going to spend to get Ronnie Brown, its not worth the heartache an week by week anxiety of wondering whether or not Brown will a) produce for you or b) get injured. You're better off gambling with a late round pick with Ricky Williams and hope that Brown gets injured. Just saying.
QUICK SHOTS
Comments on players not mentioned
Pierre Thomas (NO) - Like him as a low 2nd RB/high end 3rd RB on any fantasy squad. Yardage numbers will never be there, but given the fact that he's the obvious starting RB on the most explosive offense in the league, he's someone that you dont hate having on your team.
Beanie Wells (ARZ) - Here's someone that Im a little perplexed about in terms of whether I like him or not. The running game in Arizona will be more emphasized now that Kurt Warner has retired and although that should spell well for the fantasy prospects of Beanie, there are some flags to lay down. One, he may be platooned with another established name in that Arizona backfield, Tim Hightower, who has averaged 9 TDs over the past two years. Two, he has a history of nagging injuries since his days in college, which can easily creep back and frustrate owners over the course of the season. I wont say avoid him on draft day - take a mid to late-round flier on him but make sure you have 2 quality backs that you feel confident that you can depend on for the season.
Cedric Benson (CIN) - Like him. He's found a home in Cincy and the Bengals want him to run. QB Carson Palmer and WR Chad Johnson will get the headlines and are the leaders of the team, but the Bengals are a run first squad and Benson will get plenty of work. No significant timeshare in Cincinnati either so that should be a welcomed sign for fantasy owners. Draft him as a solid number 2 running back for your fantasy team.
LeSean McCoy (PHI) - Intriguing pick. Obviously, McCoy will be the starting RB in that Eagles offense with Brian Westbrook gone from the team. The problem is deciding how big of a factor McCoy will be. One would expect McCoy's ceiling to be what Westbrook's ceiling was as an Eagle (1300 yards rushing, 700 yards receiving, 10+ touchdowns). Question is whether McCoy can reach those numbers in only his 2nd year in the league and with a new QB under center in Kevin Kolb. I would probably take a conservative estimate on McCoy's numbers, being satisfied with 900 rushing yards, 500 receiving yards, and a 7-9 touchdowns total. Those numbers would make him a nice 2nd RB in fantasy football.
Knowshon Moreno (DEN) - I personally dont think he'll do too much this year. A first-round pick last season, one would expect the Broncos to lean more heavily on the running game considering Moreno's talent. However, I just dont see that as the case. Head Coach Josh McDaniels is a New England Patriots disciple and those Patriot squads under Belichick have rarely featured a stout fantasy RB (the exception being Corey Dillon). Plus with a coach like McDaniels, who likes to experiment with ideas on offense, one never really knows what will happen. Moreno has talent, but I wouldnt depend on him as a 2nd RB on my fantasy roster. Hes more suited as a 3rd RB with upside to produce as a 2nd RB.
Jonathan Stewart (CAR) - Red flag for me. Although he has produced some nice numbers over the past two seasons, averaging 10 rushing TDs, the big worry for me is injuries. He has a history of dealing with foot injuries for the past two years and although reports are that he's coming into camp this year healthy, I'm not willing to take the chance. You can find a better starting #2 RB with fewer questions surrounding him like Cedric Benson or Matt Forte.
Chris Johnson (TEN)
Adrian Peterson (MIN)
Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
Ray Rice (BAL)
Michael Turner (ATL)
Frank Gore (SF)
Rashard Mendenhall (PIT)
Johnson, Peterson, MJD, and Rice should all be able to replicate their forms from last season barring injury. I'm especially intrigued by what Ray Rice can do in Baltimore now that they've added one of the better possession receivers in the league, Anquan Boldin, over the off-season. Add another year of maturation for Joe Flacco, that strong Ravens defense, and the prospect that fellow RB Willis McGahee wont be taking goal line carries away from Rice, Rice may be in line to become a part of the Big 3.
Now, some may have questions about the final 3 names on that list, but let me rest your worries with these short comments:
Michael Turner - Here you have someone who has a proven track record. Two years ago, this was someone who ran for almost 1700 yards and scored 17 touchdowns. Last season, the offensive leaders of the Falcons (Turner and QB Matt Ryan) were banged up and were never able to regain their forms during the mid and late part of the season. However in 2009, in those first 8 games Turner put out some impressive stats (10 tds, 871 yards).
High ankle sprains just need time to heal and Turner wasnt given that. Hes had an offseason to rest and I expect him this year to return to form. Questions of him taking fewer snaps dont worry me a bit since: a) hes an explosive runner; b) he is the clear starting RB on that team and has no worries of a timeshare.
Frank Gore - A model of consistency, Frank Gore has rushed for over 1100 yards in each of the last 4 seasons. People who dont believe Gore is a first round player to be happy with often point to factors like his history of injuries (missed 2 games in each of the last 2 seasons) or his lack of touchdowns (in his career, only scored more than 10 tds last year).
However, the positives greatly outweigh the negatives in my opinion. Again, you have someone in Gore who you wont have to worry about in terms of sharing time in the backfield. In addition, the 49ers upgraded their offensive line, spending two 1st-round picks to grab OT Anthony Davis and OG Mike Iupati and the offense will be run by the same offensive co-ordinator that ran it last year, something that hasnt happened since 2005. Lastly, to add icing to the cake, the 49ers face one of the weaker schedules this year considering they will be playing in the NFC West. Gore and that offense look poised to put up some really nice numbers.
Rashard Mendenhall - Last year was a breakout year for the former first-round pick where he rushed for over 1100 yards and scored 7 touchdowns in his 2nd year. There is one big reason why fantasy managers should expect big things from Mendenhall this year - Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben will be serving at least a 4 game suspension this season after being accused of sexual assault for the 2nd time in his short but storied career. As a result, that team will lean heavily upon its running game and Mendenhall will not be sharing touches with anyone else on that roster.
Some may counter that teams may look to drop down some players from the secondary and that will hurt Mendenhall`s production, but I dont see that. Given that the projected QB for the Steelers will be Byron Leftwich, someone who has always had a strong arm, and given the big play receivers that the team features in Hines Ward and Mike Wallace, I dont expect that to be the case.
Now with that out of the way, I think one very important point to consider is that there are a limited number of running backs who have clear starting jobs in the league. With so many teams going to two-back systems, I believe its essential to go out and try to grab at least 2 backs who have outright starting jobs, which probably means on draft day you will have to go RB-RB in the first two rounds. Some may argue for Randy Moss or Andre Johnson in the first or second, but personally I rather have my teams anchored by two starting RBs who have clear jobs rather than play the guessing game week after week with running backs who will share the workload.
Just so we are clear, the RBs who have clear jobs in the league going into 2010 are the following:
Chris Johnson (TEN)
Adrian Peterson (MIN)
Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
Ray Rice (BAL)
Michael Turner (ATL)
Frank Gore (SF)
Rashard Mendenhall (PIT)
Steven Jackson (STL)
Ryan Grant (GB)
Cedric Benson (CIN)
Everywhere else, there seemingly are teams that appear to have adopted a two rb approach which will ultimately frustrate you week after week, at least to start the fantasy season. For me, if I can couple one of the top 7 mentioned with another RB like Jackson, Grant, Benson, Jamaal Charles (KC), or Shonn Greene (NYJ), I would like my roster going forward.
SLEEPERS AND BUSTS
SLEEPERS
Jahvid Best (DET)- Best was a late first round draft pick for the Lions in this year`s draft and early indications from the organization is that he has the inside track to become the every down starter to begin the season. Best is a fast runner and has good hands coming out of the backfield, so he is a weapon that the Lions can put into multiple situations on the field. The Lions are an emerging team and have added a lot of talent this off-season on both sides of the ball to add to a young core of players. This may be the year that the team starts to take off and become competitive in a difficult NFC North division.
Matt Forte (CHI) - Two years ago, Matt Forte put up big boy numbers for the Chicago Bears, running for over 1200 yards and scoring 12 touchdowns. As a result, in last year`s draft, he was a first round commodity. Unfortunately for those banking on a big season from Forte, he fizzled and probably cost a lot of league managers a change at the title. This year, I expect a huge comeback year for the Bears running back and given the fact that hes likely to slide in a lot of drafts, Forte presents excellent value for managers.
Why the optimism? One name - Mike Martz. The Bears brought in Mike Martz to become the offensive coordinator this year. Everywhere that he has gone, teams have seen an improvement in offensive output, at least on the statistical side. And note the years that running backs have had once under a Martz offense (Marshall Faulk in St. Louis, Frank Gore with San Fran). Forte is in the same mold as a Faulk or a Gore in terms of ability as a running back. He is a good runner out of the backfield, but more importantly has good hands (over 50 receptions in each of the past two years). People may be wary that the signing of Chester Taylor may take away value from Forte, but I dont. I expect Forte to play a lot of downs and rebound to his 2008 form.
Ben Tate (HOU)- There's a reason why the Houston Texans drafted Ben Tate with a 2nd rounder in this year's draft. The offense has a lot of promise, anchored by QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson. The team is a top 10 offense in the league. However, in rushing, they were in the bottom 5 in terms of yards gained. Steve Slaton was expected to be that key clog in the backfield after an impressive rookie year, but he fizzled last season as a result of injuries and one wonders how his slight frame will now hold up as a potential starting RB. The drafting of Tate with an early round pick speaks volumes about what the organization may think about Slaton. There have been rumblings in camp that Tate may become the starting RB on day one of the season, which would be excellent value for a mid to late-round draft pick in one's league. If anything, you can expect Tate to be a goal-line back, taking snaps in a time share with Slaton.
BUSTS
Ryan Matthews (SD)- According Yahoo's projected rankings, Ryan Matthews is the 9th best overall player in fantasy this year. He is projected as a better back than guys like DeAngelo Williams, Shonn Greene, and Ryan Grant. For me, I'd rather have each of those three guys than Matthews right now. I understand the promise that Matthews has behind him, playing in one of the more productive offenses and appearing to have the starting RB job. However, I cant put that much trust, spending a 2nd round pick on Matthews.
I do not want to have any questions of production with my first 2 or 3 draft picks - thats where you can lose a draft. I'd rather grab more sure things like Williams, Greene, or Grant than take a roll of the dice with Matthews who is still a rookie playing on an offense that is pass dominant and may be missing key members on opening day (WR VIncent Jackson as a result of suspension; LT Marcus McNeil as a result of a contract dispute). Thats the problem - you're going to have to spend that 2nd rounder to get Matthews, and I'm not willing to do that.
Ronnie Brown (MIA) - Every year, theres one league manager who expects Ronnie Brown to have a huge season. And every year, that manager will be disappointed at what Ronnie Brown produces. Dont be that manager!!!
Look, here are the facts on Ronnie Brown:
- He starts for a team that predominantly runs the ball (Thats good!)
- He starts for a team with one of the best offensive lines in the league (Thats good!)
- He has only played a 16 game season once in his 5 year career (Thats bad...)
- He has only rushed for more than 1000 yards once in his career (Thats bad...)
- He is part of a significant time share in the backfield with Ricky Williams (Thats bad...)
- He has only scored more than 10 touchdowns in one season (Thats bad...)
Too many bads, not enough goods. For the type of pick you're going to spend to get Ronnie Brown, its not worth the heartache an week by week anxiety of wondering whether or not Brown will a) produce for you or b) get injured. You're better off gambling with a late round pick with Ricky Williams and hope that Brown gets injured. Just saying.
QUICK SHOTS
Comments on players not mentioned
Pierre Thomas (NO) - Like him as a low 2nd RB/high end 3rd RB on any fantasy squad. Yardage numbers will never be there, but given the fact that he's the obvious starting RB on the most explosive offense in the league, he's someone that you dont hate having on your team.
Beanie Wells (ARZ) - Here's someone that Im a little perplexed about in terms of whether I like him or not. The running game in Arizona will be more emphasized now that Kurt Warner has retired and although that should spell well for the fantasy prospects of Beanie, there are some flags to lay down. One, he may be platooned with another established name in that Arizona backfield, Tim Hightower, who has averaged 9 TDs over the past two years. Two, he has a history of nagging injuries since his days in college, which can easily creep back and frustrate owners over the course of the season. I wont say avoid him on draft day - take a mid to late-round flier on him but make sure you have 2 quality backs that you feel confident that you can depend on for the season.
Cedric Benson (CIN) - Like him. He's found a home in Cincy and the Bengals want him to run. QB Carson Palmer and WR Chad Johnson will get the headlines and are the leaders of the team, but the Bengals are a run first squad and Benson will get plenty of work. No significant timeshare in Cincinnati either so that should be a welcomed sign for fantasy owners. Draft him as a solid number 2 running back for your fantasy team.
LeSean McCoy (PHI) - Intriguing pick. Obviously, McCoy will be the starting RB in that Eagles offense with Brian Westbrook gone from the team. The problem is deciding how big of a factor McCoy will be. One would expect McCoy's ceiling to be what Westbrook's ceiling was as an Eagle (1300 yards rushing, 700 yards receiving, 10+ touchdowns). Question is whether McCoy can reach those numbers in only his 2nd year in the league and with a new QB under center in Kevin Kolb. I would probably take a conservative estimate on McCoy's numbers, being satisfied with 900 rushing yards, 500 receiving yards, and a 7-9 touchdowns total. Those numbers would make him a nice 2nd RB in fantasy football.
Knowshon Moreno (DEN) - I personally dont think he'll do too much this year. A first-round pick last season, one would expect the Broncos to lean more heavily on the running game considering Moreno's talent. However, I just dont see that as the case. Head Coach Josh McDaniels is a New England Patriots disciple and those Patriot squads under Belichick have rarely featured a stout fantasy RB (the exception being Corey Dillon). Plus with a coach like McDaniels, who likes to experiment with ideas on offense, one never really knows what will happen. Moreno has talent, but I wouldnt depend on him as a 2nd RB on my fantasy roster. Hes more suited as a 3rd RB with upside to produce as a 2nd RB.
Jonathan Stewart (CAR) - Red flag for me. Although he has produced some nice numbers over the past two seasons, averaging 10 rushing TDs, the big worry for me is injuries. He has a history of dealing with foot injuries for the past two years and although reports are that he's coming into camp this year healthy, I'm not willing to take the chance. You can find a better starting #2 RB with fewer questions surrounding him like Cedric Benson or Matt Forte.
NFL Previews
With a little over a month away from the start of the 2010 NFL season, this blog will preview the league from a fantasy sports perspective. Check back over the course of the next few weeks for some of my insights and predictions for the upcoming season.
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